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郭思治:五月恒指或进一步挑战新高

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整个市势又在重拾中期续寻顶之趋势中,照目前之形态看,技术上改有利于恒指于五月份再进一步挑战2018-07-12之高位25634点,惟要做到此点,首要的条件是恒指必须续稳守于10天线之上。

腾讯“证券研究院”特约 郭思治 民众证券董事总经理

A股表现仍较反复,上证指数自1月16日低位3044点开始之上升,暂已受制于4月7日之高位3295点,而在政策趋紧下,上指亦逐步反复回落至4月27日之低位3097点方稍见喘定。从小图上看,去年11月29日之高位3301点与今年4月7日之高位3295点似已渐形成中期双顶。技术上颇为偏淡,但只要上指不跌穿今年1月16日之低位3044点,问题该不大,对A股之中期后市,笔者维持看好不变,上指一旦成功升越3301点及3295点之小双顶,中期目标该直指2018-07-12之高位3684点。

港股于四月份之走势相当反复,大市于下旬之前仍属先高后低之形态(5日之高位24400点跌至19日之低位23723点),惟踏进下旬后,形态大幅逆转,在买盘支持下,恒指自19日之低位23723点步步推上,至27日更一度高见24717点,即是说,月内大市又再回复先低后高之形态,连同首季计在内,大市已连升四个月,且更重要的是恒指又再创年内新高。单行技术上看,整个市势又在重拾中期续寻顶之趋势中,照目前之形态看,技术上改有利于恒指于五月份再进一步挑战2018-07-12之高位25634点,惟要做到此点,首要的条件是恒指必须续稳守于10天线之上,另成交金额亦需重增至1000亿元或以上,因任何升市均需动力作配合。

美股走势相当强劲,道指自去年11月3日低位17883点开始之中期上升,至今年3月1日高位21169点止计,累积升幅共达3286点,真不算少矣,故高台渐见回吐,加上市场避险情绪续渐升温,故整个美股跌至4月19日之低位20379方见喘定,即是说,道指共回调790点,相对升幅达3286点计,即道指共回调升幅之24%,幅度该已可满足调整之所需,其后由于商场避险情绪逐步降温,故资金开始积极吸纳,在庞大之买盘支持下,道指遂大幅抽升,且于4月26日再高见21070点,单从技术上看,形态当属欲试顶之格局,道指一旦升越21169点,即整个美股又再重踏续寻顶之中。

免责声明:本文内容及观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,投资者据此操作,风险自担。一切有关本文涉及上市公司的准确信息,请以交易所公告为准。股市有风险,入市需谨慎。

版权声明:本文系腾讯证券独家稿件,未经授权,不得转载,否则将追究法律责任。
郭思治
民众证券董事总经理

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